000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N98W to 10N104W to
12N125W to low pres near 11N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection within 90 nm either side of the
trough between 123W and 133W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends eastward from a high centered near
33N144W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh N to NW winds north of 28N west of the Baja
peninsula. Fresh northerly gap winds aided by nocturnal drainage
flow is noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ASCAT data indicates
light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Max seas are 6-7 ft in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 7-8 ft north of 29N west of Baja
California Norte. High pressure will slowly weaken over northern
waters Tuesday and Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
expected elsewhere outside the Gulf of California, with light
winds in the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds across the area will become westerly at
10-15 kt through Wednesday as the monsoon trough lifts northward
in response to the northward shift of Hurricane Matthew in the
Caribbean waters. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwesterly
swell are expected across the offshore waters through Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure will shift slowly southeast through Tuesday, and
support a large area of fresh trades north of the monsoon trough
west of 130W. 8 ft seas are found from 16N to 22N west of 135W.
The high will weaken slightly and relax the pressure gradient in
the area, resulting in slightly weaker trades and seas falling
below 8 ft by Wednesday. Satellite imagery and scatterometer
data indicate a poorly organized low centered near 10.5N 128W.
GFS and UKMET model guidance show this low becoming better
organized as it moves west at 10 kt during the next 2-3 days.
Expect 20 to 25 kt winds and 8-9 ft seas to develop around this
low in about 36 hours.
      
$$
Mundell