000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 607 UTC Mon Oct 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to 10N101W to 10N113W to 11N124W to 10N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 123W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends into the area from high pressure near 33N145W to the Revillagigedo Islands. This has helped tighten the pressure gradient over the northern waters off the coast of Baja California Norte with winds freshening. Winds are pulsing to near 25 kt once again tonight in the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds prevail. Seas have built to near 8 ft over the northern waters off the coast of Baja California Norte in northwesterly swell. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range off the coast of the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula, 5-6 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. The ridge will remain intact through the week keeping the moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California with seas remaining in the 6-8 ft range off the coast of Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft range off the coast of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere winds will be in the gentle to locally moderate range outside the Gulf of California, and light to gentle over the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected to continue north of the monsoon tonight. The monsoon trough will lift northward over the next few days in response to the northward shift of Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean waters. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long- period southwesterly swell are expected across the offshore waters through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb centered northwest of the area near 33N145W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is maintaining an area of moderate to fresh trades north of the monsoon trough to near 27N and west of 123W. This is helping for seas in the 6-8 ft range over this area. The areas of high pressure will weaken slightly and loosen the pressure gradient over the area. This will result in slightly weaker trades and seas subsiding below 8 ft by the middle of the week. A weak surface trough extends from 21N118W to 16N116W. This trough will dissipate by this evening while moving westward. $$ AL