000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021500
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N99W to 12N111W to
10N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to
11N between 116W and 133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 08N to 12N west of 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Subtropical ridge building eastward into the area has tightened
the pressure gradient off the coast of Baja California Norte and
increased the winds slightly to 15 kt. Fresh to strong northerly
gap winds aided by nocturnal drainage flow is noted on the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Max seas are 7-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 6-7 ft north
of 29N west of Baja California Norte. Winds will pulse to around
20 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec again tonight. High pressure
will continue to build over northern waters, which will further
tighten the pressure gradient and strengthen winds west of Baja
California Norte. NW swell propagating into these waters will
build to near 8 ft later today, and continue near 7-8 ft through
Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected to continue north of the
monsoon trough through tonight, becoming west at 10-15 kt Monday
through Wednesday. Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are
expected to prevail south of the trough through Wednesday. 4 to
6 ft seas in long-period southwesterly swell is expected across
the offshore waters through Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure centered near 35N145W will shift slowly southeast
to near 32N143W through Tuesday, and tighten the gradient north
of the monsoon trough. This will support a large area of fresh
trades north of the trough axis west of 130W. 8 ft seas extend
from 18N to 21N and west of 137W. As high pressure continues to
build, the coverage of fresh trades and 8 ft seas will increase.
      
$$
Mundell