000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020902
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
531 UTC Sun Oct 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N102W to 12N113W to
11N123W to 09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 87W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 115W and 121W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 90 nm
south of the monsoon trough west of 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure building into the area has tightened the pressure
gradient slightly over the northern waters off the coast of Baja
California Norte. This has increased the winds slightly to near 15
kt. Strong gap wind flow aided by nocturnal drainage flow is noted
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds
prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range on the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
6-7 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte, 2 ft of less in the
Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds will pulse once
again to near 25 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight before
falling below advisory criteria the rest of the forecast period.
High pressure will continue to build over the northern waters
which will further tighten the pressure gradient over the waters
off the west coast of Baja California Norte. This will strengthen
winds over this area. Northwesterly swell has started to propagate
into these waters off the coast of Baja California Norte, reaching
7 ft now. Seas will build to near 8 ft today over this area, and
will continue near this level through midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected north of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to locally moderate south to southwesterly
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through Monday.
Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long-period southwesterly
swell is expected across the offshore waters into early next
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure building over the northern waters has tightened the
pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough. This has generated
a large area of fresh trades north of the monsoon trough west of
130W. Seas have built to near 8 ft over an area from 18N to 21N
and west of 138W. As high pressure continues to build this
weekend, coverage of fresh trades will increase. This will
generate a larger fetch of fresh trades which will help build seas
to near 8 ft from 17N to 20N and west of 131W by early Tuesday.
      
$$
AL