000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 UTC Sat Oct 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N97W to 11N103W. It resumes at 13N116W to 09N125W to 09N131W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N east of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 60 nm north and 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 98W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient over the forecast waters is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across much of the area. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are pulsing to near gale force. A surface trough extends from 23N115W to low pressure near 17N113W to 14N113W where recent scatterometer pass indicates winds in the gentle to locally moderate range. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range outside the Gulf of California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 8-10 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The surface trough and low will continue to shift westward away from the forecast waters this weekend while weakening. High pressure will build across the northern waters this weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of 28N by early next week. Northerly swell will propagate into the far northern waters off the coast of Baja California Norte building seas to 8 ft by early next week. Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next couple of nights. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to locally moderate south to southwesterly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long- period southwesterly swell is expected across the offshore waters through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure will build over the northern waters this weekend which will tighten the pressure gradient over the western waters between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough. This will freshen winds north of the monsoon trough this weekend. The long fetch of these fresh trades will help build seas to the 7-9 ft range early next week. $$ AL