000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010234 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N92W to 12N105W. It resumes at 12N116W to 09N123W to 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 85W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the axis between 94W and 97W, and south of the trough within 30 nm of 10N106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... What earlier was a remnant low is now a trough 26N118W to 21N116W. The trough will slowly move west-southwest through Sunday while losing its identity A weak pressure gradient over the forecast waters is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the area. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over central Mexico, and a surface trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche again tightens tonight. This will send another surge of strong northerly winds through the isthmus of Tehuantepec, and through the Gulf late tonight, and into Saturday morning with seas building to the range of 8 to 10 ft. These strong winds will diminish Saturday afternoon with seas subsiding to 8 ft in northeast swell, then pulse back to strong intensity Saturday night, and diminish on Sunday afternoon. The pulsing of these winds will continue into early next week. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range north of 20N outside the Gulf of California, 6 to ft south of 20N, and 2 ft or less through all but the southern entrance to the Gulf of California. As the remnant low of Rosyln dissipates, high pressure will build across the region from the northwest through the weekend and strengthen the pressure gradient to the west of 110W. This will produce a modest increase in winds across the Pacific waters of the Baja California Peninsula. Associated northwest to north swell is forecast by wavewatch model guidance to spread into the northeast waters beginning early on Saturday, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The swell is expected to reach south to near 26N by Sunday evening with max seas building to around 9 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from 22N114W to low pressure near 17N114W 1011 mb to 13N113W. Scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm east of the trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm west of the trough and low from 17N to 22N, and from 17N to 19N between 110W and 112W. The trough will continue to move west-northwest through Sunday with low chances for development. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to locally moderate south to southwesterly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long- period southwesterly swell is expected across the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure will build over the northern waters which will increase the pressure gradient, freshening winds north of the monsoon trough this weekend. The long fetch of these fresh trades will help build seas to the 7-9 ft range early next week. $$ AGUIRRE