000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 825 UTC Thu Sep 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad low pressure centered within the monsoon trough approximately 750 nm WSW of Acapulco Mexico near 10N111W. The low continues to gradually become better organized. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 08N to 11N between 109W and 116W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 105W and 116W. Global models remain in general agreement in gradually deepening the low as it tracks northwestward through Saturday, then curve it N to NNE on Sunday and Monday. As the low develops, it will be accompanied by a broad area of S to SW winds and seas ranging between 8 and 10 ft to the E and SE of the low. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a high chance of development during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to low pres 1009 mb near 09N93W to 10N101W, then continues from 14N106W to low pres 1007 MB near 10N111W to 13N121W to low pres 1010 mb near 13N127W to low pres 1012 MB near 12N139W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located from 05N to 09N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm either side of the trough axis between 116W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds and seas along the Pacific coast of Baja California and in the Gulf of California have diminished. However, the respite will be short lived. Seas will increase once again for the waters W of Baja California Norte this afternoon as NW swell propagate into the region. NW to N swell will cause seas to build as high as 8 ft as far S as 25N to the W of Baja California Sur before subsiding Friday night and Saturday. Farther S, satellite-derived wind data indicate that the fresh to strong gap winds that affected the Gulf of Tehuantepec yesterday have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds this morning. Light to gentle winds are generally expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Monday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Seas will remain near 7 ft today and Friday as long period SW swell propagate into the region. Seas will begin to subside on Saturday and fall to between 4 and 6 ft on Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 12N139W will slowly shift W of the area during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high center well N of the area near 37N137W southeastward to 16N111W. The difference in pressure between the ridge and lower pressure farther S along the monsoon trough is generating moderate trades W of 120W between 15N and 25N. Trades are moderate to fresh W of 120W and N of 25N. Satellite-derived seas height data continue to indicate seas in this area ranging between 5 and 7 ft. $$ cam