000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 311 UTC Thu Sep 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad low pressure centered along the monsoon trough approximately 900 nm southwest of Acapulco Mexico is slowly becoming better organized. In addition, global models are showing better agreement concerning the track and development of this low pressure over the next several days. The low is expected to deepen as it moves northward, nearing Clarion Island by Sunday. Prior to the low undergoing further development, a broad area of south to southwest winds with seas roughly in the range of 8 to 10 ft will exist to the east and southeast of the low. The low pressure has a medium chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at http://hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N92W TO 10N100W to 1007 mb low pressure near 10N111W to 13N122W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N126W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N138W to beyond 11N140w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm north and 120 nm south of the axis between 92W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis west of 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds and seas off the Pacific coast of Baja California and in the Gulf of California are diminishing in the wake of tropical cyclone Paine that dissipated over the region yesterday. A few seas to 8 ft may be lingering between Punta Eugenia and Guadalupe Island through early Wednesday, but will subside through the remainder of the day. Seas will increase again over the waters off Baja California Norte by late Thursday as northerly swell propagates into the region. Swell up to 9 f twill reach as far south as 25N off Baja California Sur before subsiding through late Friday. Farther south, strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec have likely diminished this morning, but a brief pulse may again occur late this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through tonight, then build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as long period southwest swell propagate into the region. Seas will begin to subside on Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1009 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 12N138W will shift west of the area in the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high center well north of the area near 39N138W southeastward to 20N120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure farther south along the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate trades with local areas of fresh trades south of 20N and west 125W. Seas in this area continue to range between 5 and 7 ft. $$ CHRISTENSEN