000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 UTC Wed Sep 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 09N91W to 12N102W to
low pres 1010 mb near 10N110W to 14N121W to low pres 1010 mb near
11N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 360 nm of the trough axis E of 120W. Scattered
moderate convection was evident within 120 nm of the trough axis
W of 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine is centered near 28N116W. Minimum sea
level pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Convection associated to Paine remains absent as
the system moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing
vertical wind shear. The exposed low level center of Paine will
continue to weaken as it passes over Baja California Norte today.
Paine will dissipate over the northern Gulf of California
tonight. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Seas of 8 to 12 ft linger within 60 nm of the center of Paine
along the W coast of Baja California Norte, or over the Bahia de
Sebastian Vizcaino S of 29N and E of 118W. Winds and seas will
quickly diminish over the next 18 hours. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail in the open waters
W the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday night. Large NW
swell generated by strong winds to the W of Oregon and California
will push down the coast and into the waters off the coast of Baja
California Thursday and Friday. NW to N winds of 20 to 25 kt will
intrude into the waters N of 29N between 117W and 122W. Seas of 8
ft or higher will reach as far S as 24N on Friday and Friday
night.

Farther S, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next couple of nights, peaking near 20 to
25 kt during the early morning hours today and on Thursday. Seas
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will peak around 8 ft during both
events.

Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of 1010 mb low pressure
currently embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N110W. The low is
forecast to move slowly WNW during the next couple of days to near
11N114W, and then turn N toward the Revillagigedo Islands this
weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through
Wednesday, then will build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as
long period SW swell propagate into the region. Seas will begin to
subside on Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge reaches southeastward from 32N137W to 20N130W.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
farther S along the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to
moderate trades with local areas of fresh trades S of 20N and W of
125W. Seas in this area continue to range between 5 and 7 ft.

$$
cam