000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202030 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Tue Sep 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Paine is centered near 27.2N 116.9W at 2100 UTC moving north, or 5 degrees, at 13 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection associated to Paine has dissipated as the system moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing shear. The low level center of Paine is exposed, and the depression is rapidly weakening. Paine is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 06N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 04N to 12N between 106W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 09N109W to 12N122W TO 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N east of 86W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 90W, and within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Seas of 12 to 15 ft linger near the center of weakening T.D. Paine, roughly from Punta Eugenia to Guadelupe Island. These seas will diminish over the next 12 hours, with 8 to 12 ft seas persisting off Baja California Norte into early Wednesday morning. Light to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist in open waters off the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday night. Northerly swell related to strong winds off Oregon and northern California will push down the coast and into the waters off the coast of Baja California Thursday, reaching as far south as the waters off Baja California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday. Farther to the south, strong gap winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over next couple of nights, peaking near 20 to 25 kt during the late night and early morning hours tonight and Wednesday night. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development during the next several days of low pressure currently farther south along the monsoon trough near 09N108W. The low is forecast to move generally westward at around 8 kt for the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then northward later this week into early next toward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through Wednesday, then will build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as long period southwest swell propagates into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge reaches from the north-central Pacific through 20N120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure farther south along the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate trades with local areas of fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. $$ CHRISTENSEN