000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 UTC Tue Sep 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 26.1N 117.0W at 1500 UTC
moving north, or 360 degrees, at 12 kt. Minimum sea level
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt. Convection associated to Paine has decreased
significantly as the system moves over progressively cooler waters
and increasing shear. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
23N to 27N between 113W and 117W. Paine is forecast to continue
the weakening trend, weakening to a depression tonight and
becoming a remnant low by early Wednesday. See latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 05N to 16N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N
to 16N between 104W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 09N108W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 07N to 10N east of 86W. Scattered moderate convection
was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 98W and
102W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm north
of the monsoon trough between 120W and 128W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm either side of
the monsoon trough west of 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Paine will continue to weaken while moving
northward. Paine is forecast to become a remnant low west of Baja
California Norte by early Wednesday. 

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over next couple of
days. Winds will peak near 20 to 25 kt during the late night and
early morning hours tonight and Wednesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through
Wednesday, then will build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as
long period SW swell propagates into the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1032 mb centered north-northwest of the area
near 45N142W extends a ridge southeast to near 22N126W. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to
moderate trades with local areas of fresh trades south of 20N.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

$$
AL