000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 UTC Tue Sep 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Paine has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is centered about 200 nm SSW of Punta Eugenia Mexico near 24.8N 116.8W at 0900 UTC is moving N at 11 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt and gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present in the NE semicircle within 180 nm. Tropical Storm Paine has begun weakening and is expected to rapidly weaken today through Wednesday as it moves N over cooler waters, becoming a remnant low in about a day or so, then dissipate near the northern Baja peninsula Wednesday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 105W from 09N to 15N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 103W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 10N87W to low pres 1008 mb near 09N105W to 09N109W, then resumes from 15N117W to 11N126W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm of the trough axis W of 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Paine is forecast to continue moving N, then NE through the offshore zones W of the Baja California Peninsula during the next 36 hours. The system has begun weakening as it moves over progressively cooler waters. Paine is forecast to dissipate near the northernmost offshore zones of Baja California Norte by Wednesday night. High pres building in behind a cold front moving eastward through California will cause NW winds to increase to near gale force along the California coast Thursday night and Friday. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft could affect the waters E of 125W Friday and Saturday. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the early morning hours each day through Thursday. Winds will decrease on Friday, then become light and variable Saturday through Monday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft will prevail through Wednesday, then build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as long period SW swell propagates into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered NW of the area ridges SE from 32N138W to 17N120W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere N of 15N and W of 120W. $$ cam