000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Paine centered near 23.8N 116.7W at 0300 UTC is moving north-northwest at 11 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt and gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 75 nm of the center and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 135 nm. Paine is expected to weaken tonight as it moves northward over cooler waters, becoming a remnant low in about 36 then 48 hours, then dissipate Wednesday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 105W from 06N to 16N is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection noted within 60 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N102W to 15N110W, then resumes from 14N120W to 10N127W to 13N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 129W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Paine is forecast to continue moving through the offshore zones west of the Baja California Peninsula over the next 48 hours. The system is expected to start weakening tonight as it moves over progressively cooler waters, then dissipate in the northernmost offshore zone west of Baja California Norte by Wednesday night. Fresh north winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours and diminish during the afternoon and early evening hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. 4-6 ft Seas will prevail through Wednesday, then build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as long period southwesterly swell propagates into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge southeast to near 19N124W. Lingering seas to 8 ft associated with the remnant trough of Orlene is from 20N to 25N west of 135W. Seas over this area will diminish tonight and Tuesday. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere north of 15N west of 120W. $$ Mundell