000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Paine centered near 22.8N 116.2W at 2100 UTC is moving northwest at 14 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 79 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt and gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm. Paine is forecast to weaken tonight as the system moves northward over cooler waters, becoming a remnant low in about 48 hours, then dissipate Wednesday night over Baja California Norte. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 104W from 06N to 16N is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 60 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N102W to 14N110W, then resumes from 12N119W to 10N127W to 13N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 128W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Paine is currently moving through the offshore zones southwest of Baja California Sur. Paine is forecast to continue moving through the offshore zones west of the Baja California Peninsula over the next couple of days. The system is expected to start weakening tonight as it moves over progressively cooler waters, then dissipate in the northernmost offshore zone west of Baja California Norte by Wednesday night. Fresh north winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours and diminish during the afternoon and early evening hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. 4-6 ft Seas will prevail through Wednesday, then build to near 7 ft Thursday and Friday as long period southwesterly swell propagates into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge southeast to near 19N124W. Lingering seas to 9 ft associated with the remnant trough of Orlene is from 20N to 25N west of 125W. Seas over this area will diminish tonight and Tuesday. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere north of 15N west of 120W. $$ Mundell