000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 UTC Mon Sep 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Paine is centered near 22.0N 115.4W at 1500 UTC moving northwest, or 325 degrees, at 14 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm southwest and 60 nm northwest semicircles of Paine. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 18N to 24N between 113W and 117W. Paine is forecast to gradually start a weakening trend tonight as the system moves northward over cooler waters, then dissipate by Thursday just west of Baja California Norte. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 05N to 16N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 15N between 100W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N95W to 10N112W then resumes from 13N112W to 10N125W to 11N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 84W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 113W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south and 30 nm north of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Paine is currently moving through the offshore zone off southwest Baja California Sur. Paine is forecast to continue moving through the offshore zones west of the Baja California Peninsula over the next couple of days. The system is expected to start weakening tonight as it moves over progressively cooler waters, and is forecast to dissipate over the offshore zone west of Baja California Norte Wednesday. Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next several days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours and diminish during the afternoon and early evening hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail through the early part of the week, then build to near 7 ft as long period southwesterly swell propagates into the region toward the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb centered northwest of the area near 35N157W extends a ridge southeast to near 19N124W. The surface trough, remnant of former Hurricane Orlene, that has been moving through the western waters has shifted west of the forecast area. Lingering seas to 9 ft from this system continue west of a line from 25N137W to 21N135W to 20N138W. Seas over this area will diminish below 8 ft by Tuesday morning. Otherwise the pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trades with seas in the 5-7 ft range. $$ AL