000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 UTC Mon Sep 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Paine is centered about 300 nm WSW of the southern tip
of Baja California near 20.6N 114.6W at 0900 UTC moving NW at 13
kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds
are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is evident in the W semicircle within 60 nm.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
elsewhere from 18N to 22N between 112W and 117W. Paine is forecast
to begin weakening W of southern Baja California later today as it
begins to encounter cooler waters. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N98W to 16N103W. The wave is
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 09N to 13N between 99W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N94W to
12N104W then resumes from 12N118W to 11N125W to 12N139W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from
04N to 10N between 79W and 84W and from 08N to 14N between 111W
and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Paine is passing just W of the offshore zones S of the
southern tip of Baja California. Paine is forecast to move NNW
today W of and parallel to Baja California Sur. Paine is forecast
to begin weakening tonight through Wednesday as it turns toward
the N. Paine will become a remnant low over the offshore zones W
of Baja California Norte Wednesday night, then dissipate after
moving NE and inland over Baja California Norte on Thursday.

Fresh northerly winds will pulse into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
each night through Thursday. Winds could briefly exceed 20 kt
during the late night and early morning hours, then diminish to
around 10 kt during the day.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough. 4-6 ft combined seas will build to 6-7 ft in long
period cross-equatorial SW swell Tuesday night and Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends ESE from 32N138W to 15N123W. The difference in
pressure between the ridge and the monsoon trough is maintaining
fresh winds and seas 8 to to 10 ft W of 137W between 15N and 27N.
The difference in pressure will relax during the next couple of
days, allowing winds and seas to abate. NW swell are causing seas
well W of northern Baja to build to between 8 and 9 ft primarily
to the N of 27N between 125W and 131W. Swell heights will
decrease in about 36 hours and allow seas to subside. NW swell and
SW swell will cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft from 08N
to 14N between 119W and 135W on Tuesday and Wednesday. The swell
will abate by Thursday and allow seas to subside.

$$
cam