000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 19.5N 113.8W at 0300 UTC
moving northwest at 13 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the
south semicircle, with scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. Paine is
forecast to intensify and become a hurricane in about 12 hours,
then weaken west of Baja California Monday night. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 100W north of 07N is moving west at 10 kt.
Minimal convection is noted within 45 nm of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N94W to
12N104W then resumes from 12N118W to 11N125W to 12N139W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N
between 119W and 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Paine is moving just west of the offshore zones
south of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine is forecast
to move north-northwest and intensify through Monday west of
Baja California Sur. The system will then weaken Monday night
and Tuesday, and dissipate into a remnant low over the offshore
zones west of Baja California Norte Wednesday.

Fresh northerly winds will pulse into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
each night through Thursday. Winds may exceed 20 kt in the late
night and early morning hours, then diminish to 10 kt during the
day.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough. 4-6 ft combined seas will build to
6-7 ft in long period cross-equatorial southwest swell Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends east-southeast from 35N144W to 23N117W. A
surface trough along 137W from 17N to 23N is all that remains of
Orlene. The gradient between the ridge and trough is maintaining
fresh trade winds north of 19N within 90 nm either side of the
trough axis. The trough will move west of 140W Monday morning,
and lingering seas will exit the forecast area by Tuesday. 

$$
Mundell