000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 18.5N 112.9W at 2100 UTC
moving northwest at 12 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 998 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the
southwest semicircle, and scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection elsewhere within 180 nm of center. Paine is forecast
to intensify and become a hurricane in about 24 hours, weaken
west of Baja California Monday night. See latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 97W north of 07N is moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave
axis from 11N to 14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to
10N100W then resumes from 12N116W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough
axis between 119W and 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Paine is moving just west of the offshore zones
south of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine is forecast
to move north-northwest and intensify through Monday west of
Baja California Sur. The system will weaken Monday night and
Tuesday, then dissipate over the offshore zones west of Baja
California Norte Wednesday.

Fresh northerly winds will pulse into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
each night through Thursday. Winds will exceed 20 kt during the
late night and early morning hours then diminish during the day.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough. Combined seas of 4-6 ft will build
to 6-77 ft in long period cross-equatorial southwest swell
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure centered near 35N148W extends a ridge southeast to
near 23N117W. A surface trough along 136W is all that remains of
Orlene. The gradient between the ridge and trough is maintaining
fresh to strong trade winds from 20N to 23N between 134W and
138W. The trough will move west of 140W Monday morning, and
lingering seas will exit the forecast area by Tuesday. 

$$
Mundell