000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 913 UTC Wed Sep 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene centered near 20.2N 118.8W at 14/0900 UTC or about 521 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula moving west at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center of Orlene. Orlene is forecast to move west or west-southwest while accelerating by later today. This motion should continue through Thursday night while Orlene gradually weakens. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 97W north of 07N moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 12N to 14.5N between 95W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N85W to low pressure near 12.5N100W to 09N116W, then resumes from 15N122W to 16N140W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 10N east of 90W, and also within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis between 130W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong southerly winds over the far northern Gulf of California will diminish before sunrise as a trough and low pressure north of the area weakens. Northerly flow off the Pacific coast of Baja California Norte has increased to moderate as high pressure west of the area continues to build. Swell generated from Hurricane Orlene will impact the offshore areas of Baja California Sur beyond 150 nm offshore to near Clarion Island through today. Light to moderate winds and modest seas prevail elsewhere, and little change is expected during the next couple of days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure at 1011 mb is near 12.5N100W. This low is forecast to meander through the weekend several hundred miles south or south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible as the low moves west-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected south of 07N through Sunday. Mainly moderate southwest to west low level flow is expected across the waters southward. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft are forecast across the entire area through the period in long- period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A sub-tropical ridge is rebuilding from west to east across the northern waters. This ridge will support increasing trades to fresh levels through the end of the week which will build fresh seas to 8 to 9 ft from 13N to 20N west of 135W. The winds will diminish and seas will subside this weekend as Orlene moves west weakening the ridge. $$ LEWITSKY