000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140332 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene centered near 20.4N 118.6W about 480 nm west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California moving north at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center. Orlene is forecast to drift north overnight, then accelerate as it turns to the west later on Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 11N along 96W moving west at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis between 95W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough axis extends from 11N87W to 14N97W to a low near 12N101W to 11N110W, then resumes from 15N122W to 13N129W to 15N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough axis between 130W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh southerly winds over the far northern Gulf of California will continue to diminish tonight as a trough and low pressure north of the area weakens. Relatively light northerly flow off the Pacific coast of Baja California Norte will increase to 10 to 15 kt tonight as high pressure builds. Swell generated from Hurricane Orlene will impact offshore areas of Baja California Sur beyond 150 nm offshore to near Clarion Island through late Wednesday. Farther south, the tropical wave moving west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec may enhanced coastal showers off Oaxaca. Light to moderate winds and modest seas prevail elsewhere, and little change is expected during the next couple of days. Looking ahead, An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week or this weekend several hundred miles south or south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible as the low moves west-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected south of 07N Wednesday through Saturday. Mainly moderate southwest to west low level flow is expected across discussion waters southward. Forecast combined seas of 4 to 6 ft across the entire area through the period in long-period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section concerning Hurricane Orlene, a sub-tropical ridge is rebuilding from west to east across the northern waters. $$ Mundell