000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene centered near 19.7N 118.7W about 525 nm west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California moving north-northeast at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center. Orlene is forecast to drift north tonight, then move north-northwest early Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 10N along 94W moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm west of the wave axis between 95W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 14N94W to a low near 12N101W to another low near 11N107W to 12N112W, then resumes from 14N122W to 14N133W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough axis between 124W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong southerly winds over the far northern Gulf of California this morning will continue to diminish this evening as a trough and low pressure north of the area weakens. Relatively light northerly flow off the Pacific coast of Baja California Norte will increase to 10 to 15 kt tonight as high pressure builds. Meanwhile, swell generated from Hurricane Orlene will impact the offshore areas of Baja California Sur beyond 150 nm offshore and near Clarion Island through late Wednesday. Farther south, the tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Tehuantepec has enhanced coastal showers south of Chiapas and eastern Oaxaca. Additional overnight coastal showers and thunderstorms are possible off Oaxaca as the tropical wave shifts west. Light to moderate winds and modest seas prevail elsewhere, and little change is expected during the next couple of days. Looking ahead, An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week or this weekend several hundred miles south or south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible as the low moves west-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected north of 10N through tonight, and south of 07N Wednesday through Saturday. Mainly moderate southwest to west low level flow is expected across discussion waters southward. Forecast combined seas of 4 to 6 ft across the entire area through the period in long-period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section concerning Hurricane Orlene, a sub-tropical ridge is rebuilding from west to east across the northern waters. $$ Mundell