000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0850 UTC Tue Sep 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene centered near 19.2N 118.9W at 13/0900 UTC or about 552 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 to 75 nm of the center, except within 180 nm extending around Orlene as a band in the north quadrant. Orlene is forecast to continue to the north with a slowing forward speed, then will drift north-northwest later today, followed by a turn to the west on Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 10N along 91W moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 91W and 94W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N to 18N along 103W moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Limited convection is present near the tropical wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N85W to 16N95W to low pressure near 14N107W to 12N111W. The trough axis extends from 15N124W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm southwest of the axis between 86W and 95W, from 07N to 10N between 110W and 112W, and also form 07N to 12N west of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from northwest to southeast across the western portion of the offshore zones west of the Baja Peninsula. Moderate to occasionally fresh northwest flow is expected along the northern portion of the Baja Peninsula through Thursday, then gentle to moderate flow expected through Saturday. Gentle to moderate northwest flow is expected through Saturday across the waters south of 30N west of the Baja Peninsula. A trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California through the period. This will maintain light, mostly southerly, flow across the Gulf of California for the next few days. The exception is that fresh to strong south to southwest flow has developed and will persist north of 30N between 113W and 114W through tonight. The surface winds will veer to the northwest across the entire Gulf of California on Wednesday and continue through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast to the north of about 09N through Tuesday and south of 07N on Wednesday through Saturday, while moderate southwest to west low level flow is expected across the discussion waters generally to the south of these positions. Forecast combined seas of 4 to 6 ft across the entire area through the period primarily in long-period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section concerning Hurricane Orlene, a sub-tropical ridge is rebuilding from west to east across the northern waters. $$ LEWITSKY