000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 12 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 2100 UTC...Hurricane Orlene was centered at 17.9N 119.2W, or about 695 sm sw of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and is moving n, or 350 deg, at 05 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 95 kt, with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 90 nm of Orlene surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong out to 180 nm from the center. Orlene is forecast to further strengthen and to make a turn to the nw on Tue night and a turn to w on Wed. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory at WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ21 KMIA/MIATCMEP1 for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed n of 10N along 88W, and will continue w along the Pacific coast of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight accompanied by isolated showers and tstms within 210 nm w of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends n from 08N101W to 15N101W, and has been moving w at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either side of a line from 08N98W to 13N102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends w off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua at 12N87W to 13N97W, then dips sw to a 1013 mb low pressure embedded in the trough at 12N107W. Scatterometer winds indicate that a trough forms near 12N124W and extends wsw to beyond 10N140W. Except as previously described near the tropical waves along 88W and 101W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 06N80W to 10N86W to include the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is observed between the tropical waves roughly within 75 nm either side of a line from 11N90W to 12N96W, within 180 nm over the w semicircle of the embedded low at 12N107W, s of the western segment of the monsoon trough within 60 nm either side of a line from 08N127W to 10N132W to 07N140W, and n of the monsoon trough within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N125W to 15N132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the western portion of the offshore zones w of the Baja Peninsula. Gentle to moderate nw flow is expected through Thu, fresh nw flow will develop along the northern Baja Peninsula on Fri. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California through the period. This will maintain light, mostly southerly, flow across the Gulf of California for the next few days. The exception is that moderate to fresh s to sw flow will develop northern gulf waters between 30N and 31N late tonight and then persist through early Tue evening. The surface winds will clock to the nw across the entire Gulf of California on Wed and continue through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast to the n of about 09N through Tue and s of 07N on Wed, while moderate sw to w low level flow is expected across the discussion waters generally to the s of these positions. Forecast combined seas of 4 to 6 ft across the entire area through the period primarily in mixing long-period sw and swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section concerning TS Orlene, a sub-tropical ridge is rebuilding from w to e across the northern waters. $$ Nelson