000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1307 UTC Mon Sep 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 17.4N 119.3W or about 625 nm WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula moving slowly NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pres is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 240 nm in the N semicircle and within 300 nm in the S semicircle. Orlene is forecast to make a turn to the NNW and then N with a continued decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave reaches northward from 08N87W across Nicaragua and Honduras to the NW Caribbean Sea at 20N87W. The wave is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 15N between 87W and 93W. A tropical wave extends from 07N101W to 15N100W and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 13N between 99W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N87W to 11N99W to low pres 1013 mb near 11N106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 12N to 15N between 93W and 97W and from 11N to 14N between 105W and 108W. A surface trough extends from 11N122W to 08N139W. Scattered moderate convection is found between 122W and 139W within 150 nm of the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge axis spans from NW to SE across the western portion of the offshore zones W of the Baja Peninsula. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected through the period, except moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse occasionally just offshore of the central and northern Baja California Peninsula. On Tuesday and Wednesday, swell from Hurricane Orlene will cause seas to build to between 5 and 7 ft. Seas will subside around 1 ft on Thursday. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California through the period. The trough will maintain light, mostly southerly, flow across the Gulf of California during the next few days. The exception is over the northern Gulf of California where moderate S to SW winds will increase to fresh to strong N of 30N late tonight through Tuesday night. Winds will veer to NW across the entire Gulf of California on Wednesday, then continue through Friday. Fresh drainage flow from the N is affecting the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with seas briefly building to 7 ft. Winds and seas will subside this afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast to the N of about 08N through the period, while moderate SW to W low level flow is expected across the discussion waters generally to the S of 08N. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft are forecast across the entire area through the forecast period, primarily in long-period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section concerning Hurricane Orlene, weak and broad troughing covers the waters north of 27N between 125W and 135W. The sub-tropical ridge will rebuild from W to E along 26N/27N during the middle of the week. $$ cam