000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 UTC Sat Sep 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center centered near 12N113W is associated
with a tropical wave. The low and tropical wave are moving west-
northwest at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection was noted within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of
the low. Fresh winds along within combined seas of 6 to 9 ft are
observed over the southeast semicircle of the low. The low has a
high chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48
hours. Refer to the latest eastern north Pacific tropical weather
outlook for more information on the possible development of this
system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W extending from the
southwest Gulf of Mexico southward to near 06N94W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm east
of the tropical wave axis from 06N to 10N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N96W to 10N101W to
13N109W to low pres near 12N113.5W to 10N118W to 13N128W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
north of 06N east of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 120 nm south of monsoon trough between
90W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted within 90 nm south of monsoon trough between 100W and 110W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120
nm northwest semicircle of the low.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge extends from northwest to southeast across
the western portion of the offshore zones west of the Baja
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest flow is expected through
the period, with the exception of moderate to fresh northwest flow
developing along the central Baja Peninsula through Sunday night.

A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California through the period. This will
maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California
through Sunday. Guidance is suggesting moderate south to
southwest flow over the gulf along 31N on Sunday night, and fresh
to moderate southerly flow in the same area on Monday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are forecast to prevail north of 07N
through the period, with moderate southwest to west winds south
of 07N. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in mixing long-
period southwest and swell, are expected across the forecast
waters through the period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see special features section above for discussion on low
pressure centered near 12N113W which has the potential to develop
into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, a weak trough is noted from
near 30N128W to 28N131W. This trough will drift westward over the
next 24 hours and dissipate by early next week. Weak high
pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 26N125W. Ridging will
further build across the northern waters early next week after
the trough dissipates.

$$
AL