000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Fri Sep 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure at 1011 mb is located near 10.5N110.5W along a tropical wave which extends along 110W from 06N to 15N. These features are moving west at around 5-10 kt. Convection has become a little better organized with scattered moderate found within 210-270 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or less, however, these fresh winds are helping to support combined seas of 8-10 ft on the northwest and southeast sides of the low. Winds are forecast to increase through the next 48 hours. The low has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 12N105W to 09N117W, then resumes from 15N125W to low pressure near 13N137W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 02N east of 80W, within 45 nm southwest of the axis between 90W and 94W and also between 98W and 101W, and within 120 nm southeast of the axis between 126W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from northwest to southeast across the western portion of the offshore zones west of the Baja Peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest flow is expected through the period, except moderate to fresh northwest flow will pulse along the central and northern Baja Peninsula through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through the weekend. Low pressure may drop south along the trough into the northern Gulf of California Monday night through Tuesday night, increasing southerly winds on the southeast side to moderate to fresh. Another strong northerly surge is expected across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the early morning hours, with seas building briefly to 8 ft overnight. Nocturnal pulsing of moderate to fresh will then occur each subsequent night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds forecast to the north of about 09N through the period, while moderate southwest to west flow is expected across the waters generally to the s of 09N. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft are forecast across the entire waters through the period, primarily in long-period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, weak 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 31N125W. This nearly stationary low is slightly disturbing the subtropical ridge which reaches from 32N140W through 28N130W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This low will gradually dissipate to a remnant through the next few days with the ridging holding in place. A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is analyzed near 19N122W moving west at around 5 kt. A recent altimeter pass indicated seas of 8-9 ft within 180 nm in the northwest quadrant. A recent Windsat scatterometer pass indicated associated winds of moderate to fresh. The low is forecast to dissipate with a remnant trough left behind later today. Seas will also subside to less than 8 ft by that time. Weak 1012 mb low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N137W, drifting east. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm in the north quadrant. No development of this low is anticipated. $$ LEWITSKY