000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 08 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends N from 05N105W TO 15N105W
and has been moving w at about 12 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is currently observed from 06N to 
15N between 101W and 111W, but remains disorganized. Model
guidance continues to indicate that a surface low will develop
along the wave near 09N111W on Fri, and move w to near 10N116W
on Sat. The guidance suggests that environmental conditions will
become favorable for tropical cyclone formation in 3 to 5 days
with the low tracking nw across the tropics.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends w from the Pacific coast of
Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N100W, then turns sw to 08N108W, then
turns nw to a 1014 mb low pressure center at 18N121W, then dips
sw through a 1012 mb low pressure at 13N136W, then continues w
to beyond 13N140W. Except as already described near the tropical
wave, isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within
180 nm either side of a line from 07N85W to 12N100W, within 30
nm either side of a line from 08N113W to 12N115W, and within 180
nm either side of a line from 15N119W to 10N134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the
western portion of the offshore zones w of the Baja Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate nw flow is expected through the period,
except moderate to fresh nw flow will develop along the central
Baja Peninsula on Fri night and Sat.

A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light and
variable flow across the Gulf of California through the weekend.

Another strong northerly surge is expected tonight across, and
just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas building
briefly to 8 ft overnight, and gradually subsiding to a maximum
of 5 ft late Fri. Guidance is hinting at the next strong n surge
occurring briefly on Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds forecast to the n of about 09N through
the period, while moderate sw to w flow is expected across the
EPAC waters generally to the s of 09N. Forecast combined seas of
4 to 7 ft are forecast across the entire waters through the
period primarily in mixing long-period sw and swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned in the tropical wave section, a
weak trough will soon develop to the n of 27N along 123W, and
shift w across the waters n of 25N over the weekend with a
surface high pressure developing e of the trough near 27N123W on
Fri. The ridge will rebuild from w to e along 26N late in the
weekend. 

$$
Nelson