000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1527 UTC Thu Sep 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N108W to 13N105W moving W at 10-15
kt. A surface low is forecast to develop at the southern extent of
the wave axis during the next 12-24 hours and move W to near
09N110W by Fri morning and to near 10N114W by Sat morning. Global
model guidance suggests that environmental conditions will become
favorable for tropical cyclone formation in 3 to 5 days. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 100W to
110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The Monsoon Trough extends from 13N87W to 12N97W to 10N107W to
15N115W to 1012 mb low near 17N121W to 13N130W 1011 mb low near
13N136W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to
10N between 84W and 87W...from 10N to 13N between 89W and
96W...from 07N to 11N between 96W and 100W...from 12N to 16N
between 115W and 125W...and from 09N to 12N between 131W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from NW to SE across the
western portion of offshore zones W of the Baja Peninsula. Gentle
to moderate northerly flow is expected through the weekend.

A trough will soon develop over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light and
variable flow across the Gulf of California through the
weekend...except increasing to a moderate to occasionally fresh
SW flow N of 30N during the overnight hours.

Fresh northerly drainage flow is forecast across...and just
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon with
seas building briefly to 9 ft. Thereafter...winds will decrease
across the Tehuantepec region...however seas to 9 ft in SW swell
will remain downstream generally from 11N to 14N between 95W and
101W by Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light and variable winds forecast to the N of 09N through the
period...while gentle to moderate SW to W flow is expected across
the waters generally to the S of 09N. Forecast combined seas of 5
to 7 ft across the entire waters through the period primarily in
long-period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A nearly stationary surface ridge axis will extend from near
32N137W to near 24N119W. Moderate to occasional fresh NE flow
will continue through the weekend across the NW portion of the
discussion area with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft. A weak trough
will shift W across the waters N of 25N during the weekend with high
pressure developing E of the trough near 27N125W late Sat.

$$
HUFFMAN