000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 08 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 06N107W TO 15N105W and
has been moving w at about 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is currently observed to the S of 15N within
about 360 nm either side of the wave axis. A surface low is
forecast to develop along the wave near 09N109W Thu night and
move W to near 10N115W Fri night. Model guidance suggests that
environmental conditions will become favorable for tropical
cyclone formation in 3 to 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends W from the Pacific coast of
Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N110W to 08N110W an ill-defined 1012
mb low pres near 16N121W to 11N140W.

Except as already described near the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 12N to 14N between 87W and
92W, from 12N to 18N between 115W and 124W, and from 09N to 12N
between 127W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the
western portion of offshore zones w of the Baja Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate nw flow is expected through the weekend. 

A trough will soon develop over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light and
variable flow across the Gulf of California through the weekend,
except increasing to a moderate to occasionally SW flow between
30N and 31.5N during the late night hours. 

Fresh northerly drainage flow is forecast across, and just
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Thu night with
seas building briefly to 9 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds forecast to the n of about 05N through
the period, while moderate SW to W flow is expected across the
EPAC waters generally to the S of 05N. Forecast combined seas of
4 to 7 ft across the entire waters through the period primarily
in mixing long-period SW and swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned in the tropical wave section, a
quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N138W to
near 24N118W.  Moderate NE flow will continue through the
weekend to the S of the ridge and N of the monsoon trough, with
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. 

Fresh ne winds with combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed N of
27N W of 125W through Thu. The gradient will then relax with a
weak trough shifting W across the waters N of 25N over the
weekend with a surface high pressure developing E of the trough
near 28N125W on Sat.    

$$
Formosa