000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072146
TWDEP 

5ropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 07 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends N from 06N103W TO 18N102W
and has been moving w at about 12 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is currently observed to the s of 14N
within 300 nm either side of the wave axis. A surface low is
forecast to develop along the wave near 08N108W on Thu and move
w to near 09N113W on Fri. Model guidance suggests that
environmental conditions will become favorable for tropical
cyclone formation in 3 to 5 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends w from the Pacific coast of
Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N94W...then dips sw through the
tropical wave to 08N103W...then turns abruptly nw through an
embedded 1010 mb low pres at 15N121W...then turns sw through a
1009 mb low pres at 12N136W and continues w to beyond 13N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
240 nm over the sw quadrant of the low at 15N121W. Except
as already described near the tropical wave, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N between
94W and 110W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from
15N116W to 10N130W to 11N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical cyclone Newton has moved well inland near 31.6N 111.2W.
Combined seas of 6 to 8 across the central Gulf of California
from 24N to 26N will quickly subside this evening. A sub-
tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the western
portion of offshore zones w of the Baja Peninsula. Gentle to
moderate nw flow is expected through the weekend. 

A thermal trough is developing over the Baja Peninsula and
across the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light
and variable flow across the Gulf of California through the
weekend, except increasing to a moderate to occasionally sw
flow between 30N and 31.5N during the late night hours. 

Fresh northerly drainage flow is forecast across, and just
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight
hours, except increasing to strong tonight with seas building
briefly to 9 ft.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds forecast to the n of about 05N through
the period, while moderate sw to w flow is expected across the
EPAC waters generally to the s of 05N. Forecast combined seas of
4 to 7 ft across the entire waters through the period primarily
in mixing long-period sw and swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned in the tropical wave section, a
quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N138W to
near 24N118W.  Moderate ne flow will continue through the
weekend to the s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. 

Fresh ne winds with combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed n of
27N w of 125W through Thu. The gradient will then relax with a
weak trough shifting w across the waters n of 25N over the
weekend with a surface high pressure developing e of the trough
near 28N125W on Sat.    

$$
Nelson