000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1329 UTC Wed Sep 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 30.2N 111.3W or about 80 sm NNW of Hermosillo Mexico at 1500 UTC Sep 07. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb, and maximum sustained winds are 45 kt gusting to 55 kt. Newton is moving NNE, or 015 degrees at 16 kt. Currently, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 30N to 33N between 109W and 112W. Newton is forecast to continue rapidly weakening and continue NNE into southeastern Arizona this afternoon, then dissipate over New Mexico tonight. Rainfall associated with Newton over the Baja California peninsula has ended, and rainfall over the Mexican state of Sonora is beginning to taper off. Newton is still expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain. For more information on Newton see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. A broad area of low pres is embedded within the monsoon trough near 13N121W. The low has an estimated pres of 1009 mb at 1200 UTC. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 09N to 14N between 113W and 125W. This low is forecast to be near 16N122W tonight, and near 20N125W Thu night. This system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends N from 09N102W to 18N101W. The wave has been moving W at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N between 93W and 108W. Model guidance suggests that a surface low will develop along this wave within a couple of days. This system has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 10N94W to 07N107W. The trough resumes from 18N118W to 1009 mb low pres center at 14N121W to 11N127W to 1010 mb low pres at 12N134W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on Tropical Storm Newton. A sub-tropical ridge axis will rebuild on Wed with its axis extending from NW to SE across the western portion of offshore zone PMZ015. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow is expected through Thu, then moderate NW wind flow will develop along the Pacific coast of Baja Peninsula on Fri, then persist through the weekend. A trough will develop again over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California in the wake of Newton on Thu. The will generally maintain a light and variable wind regime across the Gulf of California through the weekend. SW winds will increase to moderate speeds between 30N and 31.5N during the late night hours Mon through Wed. Fresh to strong drainage flow from the N is forecast across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening through Fri morning with seas building briefly to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are forecast to the N of 07N through the period, while moderate SW to W winds are expected to the S of 07N. Combined seas of 3 to 6 ft will prevail in the entire area through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, a quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N138W to near 20N115W. Moderate NE flow will generally continue through Sun to the S of the ridge and N of the monsoon trough, with combined seas ranging between 4 and 7 ft. Winds N of the monsoon trough and S of 20N will be occasionally fresh during the next few days. $$ cam