000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 07 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Topical Storm Newton is centered near 28.7N 111.8W or about 10 sm SE of Bahia Kino Mexico at 0900 utc Sep 07. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb, and maximum sustained winds are 60 KT gusting to 75 kt. Newton is moving N, or 010 degrees at 15 kt. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 25N to 30N between 110W and 114W. Newton is forecast to move north over mainland Mexico today and into southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Winds will diminishing to 25 kt within 24 hours. Newton is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula. Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, and possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, over the Mexican state of Sonora. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain. For more information on Newton see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. A broad area of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed near 13N122W, with an estimated pressure of 1008 mb at 0600 UTC. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 11N to 14N between 118W and 126W. This low is forecast to move to near 17N122W Wed night, and near 20N125W Thu night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends N from 17N99W to 08N99W, and has been moving w at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of axis. Model guidance suggests that a surface low will develop along this wave in a couple of days, and tropical cyclone formation will be possible within 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends wsw from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 11N86W to 07N100W to an embedded low pressure center at 13N122W to 12N140W. Scattereed moderate convection is within 180 NM of axis between 90W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 128W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on Tropical Storm Newton. A sub-tropical ridge axis will rebuild on Wed with its axis extending from nw to se across the western portion of offshore zone PMZ015. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is expected through Thu, then moderate nw flow will develop and along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula on Fri, and persist through the weekend. A trough will develop again over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California in the wake of Newton on Thu. This will maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through the weekend, except increasing to a moderate sw flow between 30N and 31.5N during the late night hours. Fresh northerly drainage flow is forecast across, and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening to Thu evening with seas building briefly to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds forecast to the n of 07N through the period, while moderate sw to w flow is expected across the EPAC waters to the s of 07N. Forecast combined seas of 3 to 6 ft across the entire waters through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, a quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N138W to near 20N115W. Moderate ne flow will continue through Sun to the s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. The gradient will tighten on Sun night into Mon with the trades increasing to 15-20 kt, as the tropical low previously described moves northwestward across the tropics. Fresh ne winds with combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed n of 27N w of 125W. The gradient will relax late this week with a surface high pressure developing near 28N125W. $$ Formosa