000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 06 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Newton is centered near 25.8N 111.5W or about 15 sm ssw of Loreto Mexico at 2100 utc sep 06. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb and maximum sustained winds are 65 KT gusting to 80 kt. Newton is moving nnw, or 345 degrees at 16 kt. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 22N to 29N e of 115W, including the Gulf of California. Newton is forecast to move north across the Gulf of California tonight, and move inland over mainland Mexico on Wed near 31.5N 111.2W, and then weaken to a remnant low well inland near 34.2N 110.0W on Wed night. Copious rainfall from Newton will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of southwest and western Mexico, including Baja California Sur, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. For more information on Newton see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. A broad area of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed near 13N121.5W, with an estimated pressure of 1009 mb at 1800 UTC. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed within 180 nm over the s quadrant of the center. This low is forecast to move to near 14N122W on Wed and near 14N124W on Thu with the possibility of tropical cyclone formation through five days as the low continue nw across the tropics. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends N from 10N97W to near 20N96W, and has been moving w at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 10.5N94W to 12.5N101W. Model guidance suggests that a surface low will develop along this wave in a couple of days, and tropical cyclone formation will be possible in 3 to 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends sw from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 11N85W to 06N112W, then resumes near 16N119W and extends sw through an embedded 1009 mb low pressure center at 13N121.5W to another 1009 mb low at 13N137W to continues w to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm mover the s quadrant of the low at 13N121.5W. Similar convection is observed within 90 nm either side of lines from 12N109W to 11N115W, and from 09N126W to 13N134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on a hurricane Newton. A sub-tropical ridge axis will rebuild on Wed with its axis extending from nw to se across offshore zone PMZ015. Light to gentle anticyconic flow expected through Thu, then moderate nw flow will develop along the Pacific coast of Baja on Fri and continue through the weekend. A thermal trough develop again on Thu over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California. This will maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through the weekend, except increasing to a moderate sw flow between 30N and 31.5N during the late night hours. Fresh northerly drainage flow forecast across and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight hours, except increasing to strong on Wed and Thu nights with seas building briefly to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds forecast to the n of 07N through the period, while moderate sw to w flow is forecast across the waters to the s of 07N. Forecast combined seas of 3 to 6 ft across the entire waters through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, a quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N138W to near 20N115W. Moderate ne flow will continue through Sun to the s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. The gradient will tighten on Sun night into Mon with the trades increasing to 15-20 kt as the tropical low previously described moves northwestward across the tropics. Fresh ne winds with combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed n of 27N w of 125W. The gradient will relax late this week with a surface high pressure developing near 28n125W. $$ Nelson