000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2353 UTC Mon Sep 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 06/0300 UTC, Hurricane Newton was centered near 21.3N 109.0W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 979 mb and maximum sustained winds of 80 KT gusting to 100 kt. Newton is moving NW or 325 degrees at 14 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection was noted within 120 nm southeast and 60 nm northwest semicircles of the center of Newton. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 11N to 23N between 105W and 112W. Newton is forecast to continue to intensify overnight, reaching near 95 kt by Tuesday morning before making landfall over Baja California Sur. The system is then forecast to move northward across the Gulf of California into Sonora, Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday. Copious rainfall from Newton will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of southwest and western Mexico, including Baja California Sur, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. For more information on Newton see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for a monsoon trough breakdown event over the western waters this week. The monsoon trough will roll up into at least two low pressure areas. In these events there is the chance that one, or more, of the vortices can develop into a tropical cyclone. There is currently a medium probability for one of the low pressure areas to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Please refer to the latest eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from 08N to the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are noted near the wave axis north of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 09N100W... then continues from 12N121W to 14N125W to 13N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for additional information on Hurricane Newton, which is forecast to track northwestward into Baja California Sur Tuesday, then across the Gulf of California late Tuesday before moving inland over Sonora, Mexico on Wed. Outside of the influence of Newton, gentle to moderate winds will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of Tehunatepec early Wednesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are expected through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb centered northwest of the area near 39N151W extends a ridge southeast to near 20N119W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh winds north of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. The monsoon trough is expected to break down over the western waters this week as discussed in the special features section above. $$ AL