000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1943 UTC Mon Sep 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

At 05/2100 UTC, recently upgraded Hurricane Newton was centered
near 20.3N 108.1W with an estimated minimum central pressure of
987 mb and maximum sustained winds of 65 KT gusting to 80 kt.
Newton is moving NW or 325 degrees at 14 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection was noted within 90 nm of the center
of Newton. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
elsewhere from 11N to 22N between 104W and 112W. Newton is
forecast to continue to intensity tonight, reaching near 75 kt
overnight before starting to weaken. Newton is forecast to move
into Sonora, Mexico Wednesday. Copious rainfall from Newton will
bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mud
slides over portions of southwest and western Mexico, including
Baja California sur, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
For more information on Newton see the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W from 08N to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Isolated showers are noted near the wave axis north of
10N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to 09N100W...
then continues from 14N118W to 14N130W to 12N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N
between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 93W
and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 128W and 133W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section above for additional information on
Hurricane Newton, which is forecast to track northward across the
offshore waters before moving inland over Sonora, Mexico on Wed.

Outside of the influence of Newton, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail west of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the
5-7 ft range. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of Tehunatepec
early Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are
expected through the period.
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered northwest of the area near
39N151W extends a ridge southeast to near 20N119W. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh winds north of
the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

$$
AL