000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 UTC Mon Sep 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton was centered near 19.1N 107.0W at 05/1500 UTC or 155 nm WSW of Manzanillo Mexico. Newton is moving NNW or 330 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 MB. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is present from 13N to 24N between 103W and 110W. Convection continues becoming increasingly organized as banding features associated with Newton develop more curvature. Newton is forecasted to continue intensifiying and is likely to become a hurricane before it begins to interact with the southern Baja peninsula on Tuesday. Newton is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N89W to 20N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found S of Guatemala and El Salvador from 07N to 12N between 89W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to 08N100W...then continues from 12N113W to 11N119W to 14N126W to low pressure 1008 MB near 12N136W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and scattered strong convection is seen from 05N TO 12N between 78W and 87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 15N between 123W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for additional information on Tropical Storm Newton which is forecast to track across the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Cabo San Lucas today and along the Baja California peninsula tonight until Wed. Newton will weaken over Sonora Mexico on Wed. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for zones PMZ015 and PMZ019-023. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California during the next couple of days. This will maintain light and variable winds over the northern Gulf of California through Tue. Increasing moderate to fresh southerly winds can be expected in the same area as Newton approaches. Fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed night. North winds will become strong Thu morning through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A sub-tropical ridge axis anchored by a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the discussion area near 40N153W extends SE through 32N136W to 16N116W. This ridge will generally maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough N of 15N and W of 125W through the end of this week. $$ cam