000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050955 TWDEP TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton was centered near 17.9N 106.1W at 05/0900 UTC or 121 nm west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico moving north- northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 MB. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 13N to 24N between 103W and 110W. The convection is becoming increasingly organized and there are now a couple of banding features noted in association with the system. Conditions favor additional strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours before a potential landfall in Baja California. Newton is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 08N99W...then continues from 12N113W to 13N120W to weak low pressure 1010 MB near 13N135W and continuing through 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N TO 13N between 112W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 15N between 123W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for additional information on tropical storm Newton which is forecast to track across the offshore waters and across Baja California by late Tue and weakening over Mexico by late Wed. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for zones PMZ015 and PMZ021-025. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across the northern Gulf of California where a weak low pressure is expected to develop during the early daylight hours during the next few days. This will maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Tue, except increasing to moderate to fresh southerly flow in the same area on each night. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed night becoming strong northerly winds Thu morning through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A sub-tropical ridge axis anchored by a 1030 mb high well northwest of the discussion area near 39N152W extends southeast through 32N140W to 22N115W. This ridge will persist through Monday night before weakening and retreating northward. This will keep moderate to locally fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon trough through early week. The ridge will weaken and shift northward when cross equatorial southerly winds will then shift north, keeping moderate to locally strong southerly winds over an area from 10N to 15N west of 120W. $$ FORMOSA