000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050304
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 UTC Mon Sep 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Tropical Storm Newton was centered near 17.0N 105.7W at 05/0300
UTC or 145 nm southwest of Manzanillo Mexico moving north-
northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 MB.
M<aximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
to numerous strong convection was noted within 180 nm in the north
and 120 nm in the south semicircles of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere within 240
nm in the southeast semicircle. The convection is becoming
increasingly organized and there are now a couple of banding
features noted in association with the system. Conditions favor
additional strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours before a
potential landfall in Baja California. Newton is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit,
Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains
could produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 15N97W...then
continues from 14N113W to 13N120W to weak low pressure 1012 MB
near 13N130W and continuing through 11N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 120-180 NM either side
of the axis W of 130W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 180 NM S of the trough axis between 110W and 117W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM of the coast
of Costa Rica...Nicaragua and El Salvador.


...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section above for additional information on
tropical storm Newton which is forecast to track across the
offshore waters and across Baja California by late Tue and
weakening over Mexico by late Wed. Tropical storm warnings are in
effect for zones PMZ015 and PMZ021-025.

A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California where a weak low pressure is
expected to develop during the early daylight hours during the
next few days. This will maintain light and variable flow across
the Gulf of California through Tue, except increasing to moderate
to fresh southerly flow in the same area on each night.

Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
late Wed night becoming strong northerly winds Thu morning through
Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected
through the period.
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A sub-tropical ridge axis anchored by a 1031 mb high well northwest
of the discussion area near 40N153W extends southeast through
32N140W to 22N115W. This ridge will persist through Monday night
before weakening and retreating northward. This will keep moderate
to locally fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon
trough through early week. The ridge will weaken and shift
northward when cross equatorial southerly winds will then shift
north, keeping moderate to locally strong southerly winds over an
area from 10N to 15N west of 120W.

$$
COBB