000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1944 UTC Sun Sep 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

...Tropical Depression fifteen-E has developed this afternoon
and was centered near 16.5N 105.4W at 04/2100 UTC or 200 nm
south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico moving north-northwest at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 MB. M<aximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection was noted within 240 nm in the southwest
semicircle and 180 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant.
Scattered moderate convection was noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N
between 100W and 109W. The convection is becoming increasingly
organized and conditions favor additional strengthening. The
depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of
5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja
California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through
Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 17N100W...then
continues from 15N100W to 12N120W to weak low pressure 1010 MB
near 13N130W and continuing through 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted within 120-180 NM either side
of the axis W of 129W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 180 NM S of the trough axis between 110W and 116W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section above for additional information on
tropical depression fifteen-E which is forecast to track across
the offshore waters and across Baja California by late Tue and 
weakening over Mexico by late Wed. Tropical storm warnings are in
effect for zones PMZ015 and PMZ021-025.

A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and across
the northern Gulf of California where a weak low pressure is
expected to develop during the early daylight hours during the
next few days. This will maintain light and variable flow across
the Gulf of California through Tue, except increasing to moderate
to fresh southerly flow in the same area on each night.

Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
late Wed night becoming strong northerly winds Thu morning through
Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected
through the period.
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A sub-tropical ridge axis anchored by a 1031 mb high well northwest
of the discussion area near 40N153W extends southeast through
32N140W to 22N115W. This ridge will persist through Monday night
before weakening and retreating northward. This will keep moderate
to locally fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon
trough through early week. The ridge will weaken and shift
northward when cross equatorial southerly winds will then shift
north, keeping moderate to locally strong southerly winds over an
area from 10N to 15N west of 120W.

$$
COBB