000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 04 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad area of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed with a mean center near 15N106W, with an estimated pressure of 1005 mb at 0600 UTC. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 12N to 18N between 99W and 110W. Although this convection is disorganized, atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to be favorable for rapid intensification, and this low has a high potential for tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days as it tracks NW reaching low confidence forecast positions near 17N106W on Sun night, near 19N108W on Mon evening, near 21N110W on Mon night and moving inland near the Baja Peninsula near 25N112W on Tue night. Fresh to strong southwesterly flow...with 8 to 10 ft seas...is currently observed se of the low and monsoon trough axis within 120 nm either side of a line from 15N101W to 11N109W. Caution, there is much uncertainty in these forecast positions as the low is currently very disorganized. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten tonight with strong to near gale cyclonic winds developing near the low center. The gradient should continue to tighten, and gale force winds are forecast within 150 nm of the low...or tropical cyclone center...Sun night. Due to the close proximity to the Pacific coast of Mexico, these winds, and the resultant high seas and surf, will reach the Pacific coast of Mexico between about 100W and 105W on Sun. The associated convection will likely increase as the system intensifies, and result in high rainfall accumulations along the coast, and possible mudslides near elevated terrain. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Pacific coast of Mexico at 17N110W, through the embedded 1005 mb low pressure center estimated at 15N106W, to 13N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N TO 18N between 99W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 125W to beyond 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on a gale, or tropical cyclone, that is developing in the vicinity of 15N106W, and forecast to track northwestward through the offshore waters through the middle of next week. Otherwise, a sub-tropical ridge axis extending SE just to the W of the offshore waters, will maintain moderate to fresh NW flow, with 4 to 7 ft combined seas, across the waters along the Pacific coast of Baja. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California where a weak low pressure is expected to develop during the early daylight hours during the next few days. This will maintain light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Mon, except increasing to fresh SW flow between 30N and 31N tonight, and moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected in the same area on Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas expected elsewhere N of 03N, and moderate southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas forecast S of 03N through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, a quasi-stationary surface ridge extending from near 32N138W to near 17N121W will shift slightly SW over the next few days. Moderate NE flow will continue through early next week S of the ridge and N of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft. The gradient should relax some late in the weekend. $$ FORMOSA