000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1401 UTC Sat Sep 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad area of low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough is centered near 15N102W with an estimated pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this system is noted within 120 nm north semicircle of the low. Atmospheric conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and this system has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Gale force winds are likely to occur in association with this low by early next week. Locally heavy rain, flash floods, and mud slides are possible along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the next several days due to this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to low pres near 15N102W to low pres near 12N121W to low pres near 11N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 11N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north semicircle of low near 15N102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 130W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on a tropical low with high chances of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to track NW through the offshore waters through the middle of next week. Outside of the influence of this low gentle to moderate NW flow, with combined seas in the 5 to 6 ft range can be expected across the waters along the Pacific coast of Baja through Sun. Winds will freshen locally in NW flow off the coast of Baja Peninsula afterwards. A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California supporting light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Mon. Marine conditions are anticipated to deteriorate across the southern Gulf of California beginning on Mon night, and then spread n across the entire gulf waters by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle westerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are expected N of 05N, with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas S of 05N through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered northwest of the area near 36N151W extends a ridge se to near 18N112W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh winds south of 20N and gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. A couple of low pressure centers are embedded within the monsoon trough...one near 12N121W and a second one near 11N136W. Seas south of these features are in the 6-8 ft range. $$ AL