000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 02 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad area of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico is centered near 13N96W with an estimated pressure of 1008 mb at 1800 UTC. Scattered moderate to strong convection is currently observed from 10N TO 16N between 95W and 104W. Although the convection remains disorganized, atmospheric conditions are expected to become favorable for rapid intensification, and a tropical depression has the potential to form over the weekend or on Monday while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong southwesterly flow is currently observed s of the monsoon trough axis and this embedded low, roughly within the area from 10N to 12N between 91W and 103W, with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in southwest swell. The pressure gradient between high pressure along Mexico and the low will continue to increase as the system tracks NW. This will result in fresh to near gale-force winds expanding up to 240 nm over the E and SE semicircles of the low during the weekend. Due to the close proximity to the Pacific coast of Mexico, these winds, and the resultant high seas and surf, could reach the Pacific coast of Mexico between 95W and 100W as early as Sat night. These strong, or higher winds, will shift northward along the Mexican coast through early next week, and likely spread into the southern Gulf of California on Tue. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will most likely reach the coast as well, and result in high rainfall accumulations and possible mudslides near elevated terrain. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends W from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, through an embedded 1009 mb low pressure center estimated at 13N96W, then continues to 15N105W...then turns SW through a 1011 mb low pressure at 11N119W, and then continue W to beyond 09N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed E of the low pressure at 13N96W, N of 06N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 08N to 13N between 88W and 96W, from 12N to 16N between 104W and 112W, and from 06N to 14N between 125W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for the discussion on a tropical low with high chances of developing into a tropical depression S or SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. The tropical system is forecast to track NW through the offshore waters through the middle of next week. Otherwise, a sub-tropical ridge extending SE just to the W of the offshore waters, will maintain gentle to moderate NW flow, with 5 to 6 ft combined seas, across the waters along the Pacific coast of Baja through Sun, with fresh NW flow expected to develop within 120 nm of Baja Peninsula early Mon morning through Tue morning. A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California supporting light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Mon, except increasing to moderate to fresh southerly flow between 30N and 31N early Sat morning, and fresh to locally strong southerly flow is expected in the same area on Sat night. As mentioned, winds and seas conditions are anticipated to deteriorate across the southern Gulf of California beginning on Mon night, and then spread n across the entire gulf waters by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See special features section above for discussion on a tropical low near 13N96W that is expected to move N-NW across the western waters of offshore zone PMZ111 through tonight accompanied by fresh to strong SW flow. Gentle westerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas expected elsewhere N of 05N, and moderate to locally fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas forecast S of 05N through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE to E flow will continue through late Sat S of the quasi-stationary sub-tropical ridge and N of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft. The gradient should relax some late in the weekend. A weak tropical low currently near 11N119W will move slightly NE within the next 24 hours and gradually dissipate in the monsoon trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong SW flow currently observed within 90 nm SE of a line from 10N114W to 09N120W forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt on Sat. $$ Ramos