000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 916 UTC Fri Sep 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico and embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface low near 11N95W at 0600 UTC. Currently scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 16N between 90W and 101W. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Locally heavy rain, flash floods and mud slides are likely along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N90W TO 1009 mb low near 11N95W TO 12N110W TO 1012 mb low near 10N120W TO 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N TO 16N between 90W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N TO 12N between 101W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for discussion on a tropical low with potential of developing into a tropical depression southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Saturday. Otherwise, a sub-tropical ridge covering the forecast waters N of 17N west of 117W is maintaining gentle to moderate northwest flow with 5 to 6 ft combined seas across the northern waters generally north of 23N and w of 116W. Variable gentle wind flow is across the remainder Baja California Sur coast and Pacific coast of Mexico along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Except for the area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, little change is expected through Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northwest flow will develop along the Baja Peninsula late Saturday night through Sunday. A surface trough will meander over the Gulf of California supporting light and variable flow across the gulf through Mon night, except N of 30N where intermittent south to southwesterly moderate flow will continue through early Sunday morning when it increases to fresh southwesterly flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are expected through Fri morning, then the gradient will relax with gentle west to northwest flow expected elsewhere north of 05N through Sunday morning. Gentle to moderate southerly flow forecast south of 05N through Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A quasi-stationary surface ridge covering the forecast waters N of 17N west of 117W support moderate to fresh NE to E winds with a maximum of 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E flow will develop on Fri and continue through late Sat S of the ridge and N of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend. A tropical low currently near 10N120W will remain nearly- stationary through Sat with low chances of development. Fresh S to SW flow within 270 nm SE quadrant of the low is expected through Fri morning then expanding to the SW quadrant through Saturday morning. $$ FORMOSA