000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 01 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Lester is centered at 18.2N 141.2W, or about 795 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii at 0300 UTC Sep 01, moving west at 12 kt around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt, with gusts to 130 kt. Associated convection over forecast waters are numerous moderate from 17N to 20N W of 139W. A general weakening trend is forecast during the next 24 hours. The center of Lester has crossed 140W and all associated conditions are forecast to shift west of 140W early Fri morning. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N98W to 13N110W to 10N120W to 13N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N east of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 100W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge will maintain gentle to moderate nw flow, with 3 to 6 ft seas, across the Pacific waters adjacent to the Baja Peninsula tonight. Little change then expected through Sun night, except for the possibility of a tropical low, or tropical cyclone, developing near Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters on Sat. This low is expected to track northwest on Sat and Sun, reaching near 18N111W on Monday night. A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California supporting light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Monday night, except increasing to moderate southerly flow between 30N and 31N on early Saturday morning, and fresh to locally strong southerly flow expected in the same area early Sunday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds will prevail over Panama and Colombia offshore waters through Thursday evening. Light to gentle w to nw winds will continue over the remainder offshore zones through Sunday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned, a quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N140W to near 20N118W through Sun night. In the wake of Lester on Thu, moderate to fresh ne to e flow will develop s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is forecast n of the ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles sw of the s-central coast of Mexico late this week, or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks northwestward. $$ Ramos