000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 31 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Lester is centered at 18.0N 139.9W, or about 869 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii at 2100 UTC Aug 31, moving west at 11 kt around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt, with gusts to 140 kt. Associated convection currently numerous moderate to strong from 17N to 19N between 138W and 141W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 16N to 21N between 138W and 142W. A general weakening trend is forecast during the next 48 hours. The center of Lester is crossing 140W and all associated conditions are forecast to shift west of 140W early Fri. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N87W to 14N104W to 10N118W to 12N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N east of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 93W and 113W, from 06N to 13N between 117W and 129W and from 09N to 13N west of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge will maintain moderate nw flow, with 3 to 6 ft seas, across the Pacific waters adjacent to the Baja Peninsula tonight, except for moderate to fresh nw flow, with 6 to 8 ft seas, expected across the northern waters generally to the n of 27N and w of 117W. Winds will diminish to a gentle to moderate nw flow tonight, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily due to mixing long period sw and nw swell. Little change then expected through Sun night, except for the possibility of a tropical low, or tropical cyclone, developing s of the area on Sat, and tracking northward on Sat night and Sun, reaching near 18N110W on Sun night. A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California supporting light and variable flow across the Gulf of California through Monday night, except increasing to moderate southerly flow between 30N and 31N on Fri night, and fresh to locally strong southerly flow expected in the same area on Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail s of the monsoon trough axis, with light to gentle w to nw winds forecast n of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial southwesterly swell, with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will begin to subside on Thursday evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned, a quasi-stationary surface ridge will extend from near 32N140W to near 20N118W through Sun night. In the wake of Lester on Thu, moderate to fresh ne to e flow will develop s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is forecast n of the ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles sw of the s-central coast of Mexico late this week, or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks northwestward. $$ Ramos