000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302107
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1926 UTC Tue Aug 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Hurricane Lester is centered at 17.8N 135.6W or about 1280 statue
miles east of Hilo, Hawaii at 2100 UTC Aug 30, moving west or 265
degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Scattered
strong convection is within 90 nm of center in southeast quadrant.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 120 nm of
center. A general weakening trend is forecast with the center
Lester forecast to cross 140W on Wed. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC,
and the latest high seas forecast under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for
additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N100W to 10N108W to 14N121W
to 13N127W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 09N between 82W and 90W, from 13N to 15N between 93W
and 95W...from 14N to 17N between 101W and 107W, and within 120
nm north of the monsoon trough between 107W and 111W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge is maintaining moderate NW flow with 3 to 5
ft seas across the Pacific waters along the Baja Peninsula, except
moderate to fresh northwest flow, with seas 6 to 9 ft, is
forecast across the waters north of 30N through Wed night. Light
and variable winds are expected elsewhere along the Pacific coast
of Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft primarily due to long-
period cross-equatorial swell. A thermal trough will meander over
the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California
supporting light southerly flow across the Gulf of California into
the upcoming weekend when moderate southwest flow is forecast
between 30N and 31N.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough axis with light to gentle west to northwest winds
forecast north of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial
southwesterly swell will with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will
begin to subside on Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned, a 1027 mb surface high is drifting
southeast near 37N151W with a ridge extending southeast to near
22N121W. A 120 nm wide frontal trough that extends from 32N132W
southwest to beyond 28N141W. An area of low pressure could form a
few hundred miles southwest of the south-central coast of Mexico
late in week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for slow development in 5 days as this system tracks northwestward.

Otherwise, the ridge will extend from 32N137W to 22N124W on Thu
night as conditions associated with Lester shift west of 140W. By
then, moderate to fresh northeast to east flow is expected south
of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough with combined seas of
4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast flow is forecast north of the ridge, with
5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend.
 
$$
PAW