000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 30 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane is centered at 18.1N 134.4W or about 1355 statue miles e of Hilo, Hawaii at 1500 UTC Aug 30, moving w or 270 degrees at 12 kt around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Associated convection has been fluctuating. Currently numerous strong convection is observed within 60 NM e and within 45 nm w of the center, surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong elsewhere within 90 NM e and within 120 NM w semicircles of the center. A general weakening trend is forecast with the center Lester forecast to cross 140W on Wed. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 09N84W to 13N100W to 09N115W to 14N127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 NM either side of a line from 05N77W to 17N107W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within the area from 07N to 15N BETWEEN 107W and 127W, and within 60 NM either side of a line from 11N130W to 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge is maintaining moderate NW flow with 3 to 5 ft seas across the Pacific waters along the Baja Peninsula, except moderate to fresh nw flow, with seas 6 to 9 ft, is forecast across the waters n of 30N through Wed night. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft primarily due to long-period cross-equatorial swell. A thermal trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California supporting light southerly flow across the Gulf of California into the upcoming weekend when moderate sw flow is forecast between 30N and 31N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail s of the monsoon trough axis with light to gentle w to nw winds forecast n of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial southwesterly swell will with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will begin to subside on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Except as previously mentioned, a 1022 mb surface high is meandering near 31N132W with a ridge extending se to near 16N123W. The high is blocking the eastward advance of a 120 nm wide frontal trough that extends sw from 34N130W to beyond 28N141W. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles sw of the s-central coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks northwestward. Otherwise, the ridge will extend from 32N137W to 15N110W on Thu night as conditions associated with Lester shift w of 140W. By then moderate to fresh ne to e flow is expected s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is forecast n of the ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend. $$ Nelson