000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0215 UTC Sat Aug 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lester centered near 18.0N 120.8W at 28/0300 UTC moving west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. A well-defined eye is present with Lester with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 30 nm in the east semicircle and 60 nm in the west semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 210 nm in the east semicircle and 90 nm in the west semicircle. Lester will continue on a general westward motion, with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Madeline centered just west of the area near 15.7N 140.1W at 28/0300 UTC moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm in the northeast semicircle and 210 nm in the southwest semicircle. Madeline will continue on a general northwest motion in the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Madeline is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by tomorrow night. See the final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details, with the next forecast/advisory issued by CPHC under AWIPS/WMO headers HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 PHFO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N90W to low pressure near 10.5N111W, then resumes near 13N120W to 11N126W to 15N133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 104W and 108W, from 11N to 13N between 113W and 115W, and also within 150 nm southwest of the axis between 121W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally moderate northwest flow will persist across the waters off Baja California, with lighter winds farther south. An exception will be north of 27N and west of 118W where fresh to locally strong northerly flow will seep southward from off of the California coast by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday helping to build fresh seas to 7 to 9 ft. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight into early Sunday, with nocturnal winds only pulsing to moderate at best thereafter. Expect light to moderate variable winds in the Gulf of California through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in cross equatorial southerly swell. ELSEWHERE... A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending from 1019 mb high pressure near 30N130W. A weak surface trough extends from 26N136W to 23N138W, and will move west of 140W Sunday. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Lester will produce a band of moderate to fresh winds roughly from 18N to 22N, with combined seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet. Low pressure at 1010 mb is located near Clipperton Island at 10.5N111W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the southwest quadrant of the low. Prospects for tropical cyclone formation remain low through the next several days at is tracks westward along the monsoon trough. Model guidance shows moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoon flow into the monsoon trough west of the low pressure from 07N to 13N between 110W and 127W, with winds increasing to fresh to strong on Sunday before diminishing back to moderate to fresh on Monday. Seas currently up to 8 ft will build to 8 to 10 ft by Sunday evening. $$ LEWITSKY