000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1535 UTC Sat Aug 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lester centered near 18.0N 118.4W at 27/1500 UTC moving west or 275 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the northwest and 45 nm southwest semicircles. Lester will continue on a general westward motion, with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Madeline centered near 15.2N 138.5W at 27/1500 UTC moving northwest or 310 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery indicates the center is becoming more organized slightly to the north of earlier positions, with scattered moderate to strong convection noted with 90 nm of the center. Madeline will continue on a general northwest motion in the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed, and is expected to move into the Central Pacific tonight. Madeline is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane once it moves well west of 140W by Sunday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N95W to low pressure near 11N108W then terminating near 11N113W. The monsoon trough resumes near 12N119W and continues to 10N125W terminating near 13N132W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the axis between 87W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strong winds and high seas associated with Lester that were impacting Clarion Island yesterday are shifting west of the area as the hurricane moves farther to the west. Moderate to fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California between local troughing and high pressure farther west over the northeast Pacific will diminish today as the trough weakens. Generally moderate northwest flow will persist across the remainder of the waters off Baja California with lighter winds farther south. Moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, to the north of the monsoon trough axis. Otherwise no organized convection is noted within 250 nm of the Mexico. Little change is expected through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in cross equatorial southerly swell. ELSEWHERE... A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending from 1020 mb high pressure near 29N130W. A weak surface trough extends from 27N134W to 22N136W, and will move west of 140W Sunday. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Lester will produce a band of moderate to fresh winds roughly from 18N to 22N, with combined seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet. 1010 mb low pressure is located near Clipperton Island at 11N108W. Convection is minimal near this low currently, and prospects for tropical cyclone formation remain low through the next several days at is tracks westward along the monsoon trough. Model guidance shows at least moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoon flow into the monsoon trough west of the low pressure from 10N to 15N between 115W and 120W through early next week with seas possibly reaching 8 ft. $$ CHRISTENSEN