000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2135 UTC Fri Aug 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lester centered near 17.6N 115.8W at 26/2100 UTC or 461 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle and within 45 nm in the southeast semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere between 75 nm and 210 nm in the east semicircle. Lester will take a turn toward the west while increasing in speed Saturday with this motion continuing through Sunday. Lester is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Fourteen-E centered near 13.3N 136.5W at 26/2100 UTC or 1134 nm east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii or 1156 nm east-southeast of South Point Hawaii moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 210 nm in the west semicircle. The depression will continue on a general west- northwest motion in the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed, and is expected to move into the Central Pacific this weekend. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm late tonight, and then to a hurricane once it moves well west of 140W on Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 11N95W to 10N111W, then resumes from 14N118W to 15N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the axis east of 93W, within 180 nm north of the axis between 89W and 94W, within 210 nm either side of the axis between 98W and 111W, within 240 nm south of the axis between 124W and 133W, and also within 180 nm south of the axis west of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The outer circulation of Lester continues to impact mainly zone PMZ115 which includes the Revillagigedo Islands. Conditions will improve through the weekend as Lester moves away from this area. Otherwise, moderate northerly flow will persist across the open waters along with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the Gulf of california, mainly light and variable winds will prevail with seas 2 ft or less, except in the northern Gulf where a locally tight pressure gradient will allow southerly winds to pulse to fresh levels north of 29N through tonight. These winds will build seas temporarily to 2 to 4 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in southerly swell. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to fresh levels during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. ELSEWHERE... A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending from 1020 mb high pressure near 30N135W. A weak surface trough from 25N132W to 20N134W, the remnants of Kay, is disrupting the ridge. This trough will move west of 140W on Sunday. The ridge will yield moderate to fresh winds across the trade wind belt, with combined seas ranging from 4 to 7 feet. $$ LEWITSKY